1) E-6B “Mercury” (USN airborne nuclear C2) crossed the Atlantic toward Germany
(callsigns shown: WEPT25/45). Claim: these rarely leave CONUS.
2) Community tip: SKYWMASTER (HFGCS/EAM broadcast exercise) likely late Sep;
dates floated: 17 or 24.
3) Baltic: NATO scrambled 2x Eurofighters for a RuAF Il-20M flying dark/unresponsive.
STATUS
- All items are SOCMED/spotter sourced. No official releases in your material.
ASSESSMENT
- E-6B forward move is for an exercise / comms validation (SKYWMASTER-type): 0.70
- E-6B forward move tied to real-world contingency posture: 0.20
- Pure transit unrelated to broadcasts: 0.10
- Baltic intercept reflects sustained pressure ops after the MiG-31 incident: 0.65
- Immediate escalation beyond QRA shadowing: 0.08
NEAR-TERM PREDICTIONS (NEXT 3–5 DAYS)
- Elevated HFGCS traffic with repeated EAMs (possible “SKYWMASTER” event): 0.60
- Additional E-6B sorties/orbits from a European base (DE/UK): 0.70
- More Baltic QRA scrambles on RuAF ISR (Il-20/Il-22/A-50 routes): 0.45
- NATO public messaging on readiness (non-Article 5): 0.55
- Crisis-driven nuclear signaling beyond routine comm checks: 0.05
WHAT TO WATCH (VERIFIERS)
- HFGCS 8/11 MHz nets: surge of long EAM strings or “SKYMSTR”-style callups.
- ADS-B tracks of E-6B (WEPTxx) establishing repeat orbits over N. Sea/Central EU.
- NOTAMs tied to long-range HF/comm exercises or large-area airspace constraints.
- National air forces posting Baltic QRA intercept photos/summaries.
BOTTOM LINE
- Likeliest read: routine-but-rare forward basing of E-6B to support a scheduled
comms/EAM exercise, coinciding with heightened Baltic air activity. Monitor for
confirmed exercise notices and sustained HFGCS traffic to validate.
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