FLASH UPDATE (W.O.P.R.)
• Most likely: B – Stand-off persists through Zapad and into next week (≥55%/7d).
• Path to A: Several quiet nights on Danube + no PL/RO sirens → A rises toward 40% by D+30.
• Risk vector: A single fatality or major debris event on PL/RO soil jumps C to 40–50% short-term; expect synchronized northern pressure within a week.
MODE: A/B/C + Narva-Barents-Finland axis. Window = 72h / 7d / 30d.
Signal base: Lublin closure (PL), RO airspace breach, Zapad running.
A) WITHDRAWAL
Definition: RU drone pressure eases; no further NATO airspace breaches; CAP scales down post-Zapad.
Probabilities: 72h 20% | 7d 25% | 30d 30%
Leads-to: Normalized ops at LUZ/RZE; RO-Alerts rare.
De-escalation Indicators: Quiet Danube nights; no PL/RO sirens; PANSA/EPAF NOTAMs revert to routine.
B) STAND-OFF (BASELINE)
Definition: Continued RU UAV waves near borders; sporadic brief incursions/debris; recurring short TFRs; Article-4 consultations continue; no casualties on NATO soil.
Probabilities: 72h 60% | 7d 55% | 30d 50%
Now-cast: We are here.
Operational Picture: Periodic CAP/ISR over E. Poland & Dobrogea; LUZ/RZE/WAW flexible; RO-Alerts during Danube strikes.
Indicators to stay in B: Single-event nights, brief closures, no confirmed shoot-downs on NATO soil, limited EW.
C) ESCALATION — SUWAŁKI FOCUS
Definition: Coordinated pressure on the PL–LT corridor (Suwałki): deliberate/extended UAV or missile overflights from Kaliningrad/Belarus, heavy GNSS jamming, rail/energy sabotage or migrant push; NATO raises posture beyond current track.
Probabilities: 72h 20% | 7d 20% | 30d 20–25%
Tripwires:
• Confirmed RU platform overflight with kinetic effect on PL/LT soil.
• Sustained GPS denial Ełk–Suwałki–Marijampolė.
• Sudden Iskander/S-400 posture shifts in Kaliningrad + Belarus SRBM drills abutting border.
• Coordinated border provocations + rail disruption on the E-W trunk.
Likely NATO Response: Expanded CAP, ground-based air defense deployments, reinforced eFP brigades, public NAC messaging
AXIS: NARVA / BARENTS / FINLAND PUSH
Definition: Parallel pressure in the north to stretch NATO—GNSS jamming in Gulf of Finland/Lapland, unsafe intercepts in Barents, minor airspace clips over Baltic/Finland, border theatrics near Narva.
Baseline (independent of C): 72h 30% | 7d 35% | 30d 40%
Conditional (if C triggers): rises to 55–65% within 7d.
Northern Indicators:
• Notified missile/NAVWARN boxes in Barents + long-range aviation show-of-force.
• Recurrent GPS outages on HEL–TLL corridors; QRA scrambles over Gulf of Finland.
• Staged “border incidents” or drone stories in Ida-Viru/Narva info space.
---
COLLECTION TASKS (to refine probs)
1. Track EPWW/LRBB NOTAM/TFR deltas per night.
2. ADS-B: AWACS/KC-135 orbits over E. Poland/Dobrogea; any MiG-31K/Tu-22 patterns in High North.
3. GNSS anomaly logs (Suwałki, Gulf of Finland).
4. Border incident telemetry (migrant pushes, rail/power disruptions).
⟵ END MATRIX ⟶