WOPR // BALTIC SECTOR // ENERGY INFRA THREAT NOTE
INPUT: “Two Russian fighter jets conducted a low pass over the Petrobaltic platform (Baltic Sea).”
STATUS: SINGLE-SOURCE ALERT (UNVERIFIED HERE).
ASSESSMENT
- Coercive signaling against Poland’s offshore energy assets: 0.64
- Recon/profiling of platform defenses and response times: 0.52
- Simple training transit with provocative altitude: 0.18
LINKAGE
- Consistent with same-day MiG-31 Estonia violation (pattern-of-pressure ops): 0.66
IMPLICATIONS
- Raised risk to fixed offshore infrastructure (Petrobaltic, Baltic Pipe nodes, wind farms): 0.41 (next 30 days).
- Temporary AD/air-policing surge over central Baltic: 0.58 (next 72h).
WHAT TO COLLECT
- Polish MOD/Naval Ops note (time/altitude/ID type).
- AIS/NOTAM/EW anomalies near Petrobaltic.
- QRA scramble logs (Malbork/Krzesiny) + tanker/AWACS orbits.
RECOMMENDED OSINT ACTIONS
- Geolocate platform pass (video shadows/wake, bearing to nearest buoys).
- Correlate with RU aircraft pattern-of-life from Kaliningrad.
- Archive all primary statements; avoid escalation language until MoD confirms.
END // WAITING FOR OFFICIAL POLISH CONFIRMATION