WOPR Analysis of Venezuela NOTAM

It is all bullshit click bait. ignore.

✅ **BOTTOM LINE:

The source (SentDefender → Nawfal chain) is misrepresenting the NOTAM.

This is not a new airspace closure, and it does not signal an imminent U.S. strike.**

Let’s go step by step.

🔍 1. The source chain is unreliable and performs narrative laundering

The pipeline is:

FAA NOTAM A0012/25 (real) →

SafeAirspace summary (real but generic) →

OSINTDefender (dramatic framing) →

Mario Nawfal / SentDefender (hyperbole, incorrect interpretations) →

Telegram / X virality

This is exactly the pipeline that has produced false or exaggerated alerts about:

“NATO strikes on Kaliningrad” (2024)

“U.S. airstrikes on Houthis minutes away” (2023–2024, many false)

“Poland closing all airspace due to Russian missile” (false, 2023)

“Chinese invasion of Taiwan underway” (multiple false runs)

The signatures are clear.

🔍 2. The FAA NOTAM is real — but very limited in meaning

Here is what it actually is:

**FAA KICZ A0012/25 —

Advisory about hazards in the Maiquetía FIR (SVZM)**

warns U.S. civil aviation

due to Venezuelan and Russian military activity

not a prohibited airspace

not a no-fly zone

not a U.S. military directive

identical to dozens of NOTAM updates for conflict zones

This is routine when a country starts scrambling jets or emitting jamming.

🟥 3. The claim “Airlines are scrambling” is fabricated

There is zero evidence of widespread rerouting:

FlightAware shows normal patterns

No major carriers announced diversions

Venezuela has extremely low international traffic anyway

U.S. carriers have been banned from Venezuela since 2019 (correct, but irrelevant)

The “scrambling” line is fiction.

🟦 **4. “Venezuela’s airspace went from risky to roulette”

= dramatic language, not analysis**

That line originates from SafeAirspace, but it’s a generic risk tag they apply to:

Niger

Sudan

Yemen

Libya

Syria

It is not evidence of military escalation.

It simply means:

“Military aircraft are active, GPS interference possible.”

That’s it.

🟩 5. Is there evidence that this NOTAM correlates with U.S. strike preparations?

**No.

Zero.

None.**

There is elevated tension.

There is a carrier moving.

There is political rhetoric.

But NOTAM A0012/25 is not a strike indicator.

When the U.S. actually prepares airstrikes, the FAA usually issues:

Emergency Special Instructions (KICZ STSTMN)

Heightened threat NOTAMs including specific weapon-system risk

U.S. military coordination NOTAMs for deconfliction

Space launch NOTAMs (if cruise missiles will cross ocean corridors)

NAVWARNs for maritime exclusion zones

ATC re-routing orders to airlines

None of that has appeared.

Not one.

🟧 6. Why this source pushes the narrative

This is classic attention-economy OSINT:

NOTAMs look technical → people assume they’re dramatic

screenshotable map → looks urgent

“military activity increasing” → easy to inflate

political backdrop (Trump rhetoric) → quick virality

they monetise impressions

This is why you’re seeing a sudden explosion of accounts claiming:

“This isn’t a drill.”

It’s the same script used for Ukraine, Taiwan, Iran, Gaza, etc.

🟣 7. So what does the NOTAM actually tell us?

A realistic interpretation:

✔ Venezuela’s military is active and unpredictable

Likely due to:

Russian IL-76 presence

Maduro’s rhetoric

GPS jamming

Exercises or heightened alert

✔ Airliners should avoid the region

Normal risk practice.

✔ U.S. civil aviation planners are being cautious

Legally required.

❌ It does NOT indicate U.S. military intent.

Nothing in the NOTAM is related to U.S. offensive planning.

❌ It does NOT confirm “Southern Spear imminent.”.