There's another ratchet: the impounded central bank funds. There are reasons to keep it's future unresolved. But pay it to Ukraine in monthly automatic installments, perhaps as reparations.
Now there's a new cost to prolonging the war for Russia. The slow drum beat of pressure takes away the chip. At the moment of a negotiated peace the Ukrainians & EU might agree to release the funds rather than continue the war. The money puts time on Russia's side. Taking it all at once removes it as a chip for peace and creates obstacles. But it'll still be there in 2 years if the fighting continues.
Put in a mechanism so it pauses automatically during a ceasefire.
The invasion is sustained by 8k glide bombs a month. Delivered using weapons that the Russians don't currently have the capability to replace. What happens to the invasion if it that's off the board?
Good post.
There's another ratchet: the impounded central bank funds. There are reasons to keep it's future unresolved. But pay it to Ukraine in monthly automatic installments, perhaps as reparations.
Now there's a new cost to prolonging the war for Russia. The slow drum beat of pressure takes away the chip. At the moment of a negotiated peace the Ukrainians & EU might agree to release the funds rather than continue the war. The money puts time on Russia's side. Taking it all at once removes it as a chip for peace and creates obstacles. But it'll still be there in 2 years if the fighting continues.
Put in a mechanism so it pauses automatically during a ceasefire.
The invasion is sustained by 8k glide bombs a month. Delivered using weapons that the Russians don't currently have the capability to replace. What happens to the invasion if it that's off the board?
yes you're right.