Anyone from the 70s-80s will know about W.O.P.R. War Operations Planned Response. I have created a detailed model using OSINT and non-OSINT information and signals to model the current Zapad 2025 environment should it go awry.
My models for the run-up have predicted events correctly including this analysis from CNN regarding USA mis-signalling. There is a lot going on - again increasing instability and hybrid activities in the West by Russian assets is also predicted to increase.
Overall the model predicts some form of push into the Suwalki corridor between now and the mid-terms. I tweaked the models to show a simulation should Zapad be extended to a full move on the 16th September. So retro-fans here are the details fresh from the teletype and say hello to Joshua.
███ W.O.P.R. // EUROPE CRISIS BOARD ███
OUTPUT: SUBSTACK EDITION — 09 SEP 2025 (UTC)
EXEC SUMMARY
Primary risk window: 15–17 SEP.P(Russian kinetic move in Baltics during window): 55%.Most likely main effort: Suwałki Corridor via Kaliningrad–Belarus pincer (54%).If attack occurs → NATO outcome odds: rollback ≤7 days: 36%, rollback 8–14 days: 41%, Red holds >14 days: 13%, attack spoiled (no full cut): 10%.Nuclear use: <0.5%. Nuclear signaling (exercise rhetoric, radiological “sniffer” flights): 65%.
TOP SIGNALS (LAST 48H)
Poland will close all BY border crossings (incl. rail) 11–16 SEP.USAF RQ-4B (FORTE10) racetrack over Lithuania aligned to Suwałki/Kaliningrad/Grodno.RAF RC-135W to Karelia/Kola; RN P-8A to Barents; USAF WC-135 over Baltic.CSG-12 (USS Gerald R. Ford) operating in Norwegian Sea under NATO E-3A umbrella.GNSS jamming remains elevated across Baltic region; Vilnius Airport paused ops after a radar-only track from Belarus.Germany seized a covert RU “spy/UA V” freighter in the Kiel Canal (merchant hull as ISR/UAV base).Romania’s MK Air Base actively postured as a NATO logistics hub (10k on base; capacity 20k).US distraction vectors: Caribbean surge (ARG + F-35 to Puerto Rico) under legal fire; Doha explosions claimed as ISR strike vs Hamas leaders → regional escalation risk and further US bandwidth drag.
THEATER SNAPSHOT
Baltics / Poland
P(Suwałki thrust in window): 54%; P(Narva/Latvia diversion): 24%.Airport/airspace hybrid disruptions in EE/LV/LT (next 5 days): 38%.Large Shahed/FPV swarms with EW cover (per strike night): 60%.Air/sea incident from unsafe intercepts (Baltic/Barents): 30%.
Northern Flank
RU Kola feint stays signal-heavy; P(kinetic into FIN/NOR): 6%.Allied ISR stack (RC-135W / P-8A / E-3A / CSG-12) reduces surprise; raises incident risk slightly.
Southern Spine (RO/Black Sea)
P(RU missile/drone surges vs Danube/Odesa): 58%.P(GRU sabotage/cyber vs RO rail/ports/MK base): 27%.Direct kinetic on NATO soil in RO: 3% (low).
Caribbean Distraction
P(US at-sea interdiction strike): 38%; on-shore strike VZ: 12%; VZ harassment near US ships: 55%; serious clash: 9%.Net effect on Europe: political bandwidth drag, not force withdrawal.
Nuclear Signaling
Oreshnik/Burevestnik talk likely exercise theater only.P(detectable radiological anomaly): 4%; use: <0.5%.
72–120H PATHFINDER (09→13 SEP)
EW shaping: GNSS red cells + radar-only tracks; UAV/balloon theatrics at PL–BY crossings.Rail/road “accidents” near Białystok/Kaunas; phishing vs PL/RO rail IT.Night Shahed waves paired with SRBM “demo” shots; IO surge claiming NATO provocation.Protests/unrest in FR/UK (10–13 SEP) amplified by RU channels.
KEY TRIGGERS TO WATCH
Belarus forward bridging/rail parks within 20–30 km of border; artillery ammo trains to Grodno/Lida.Persistent fire-control radar locks from Kaliningrad; dual CAEW (Blue) forced to split.Mass (>180) Shahed/FPV wave synchronized with GNSS blackout and cable/AIS anomalies.Merchant hulls loitering with AIS gaps near Kiel/Great Belt/Fehmarn; RIB launches at night.US domestic shock cycles (legal/casualty headlines) lining up with RU hybrid spikes.
BLUE COA // D+0 TO D+3
Jammer-first SEAD: prosecute live EW emitters → suppress SAMs; open air window by D+2.ISR stack continuity: keep RQ-4/RC-135/P-8/E-3A on fixed orbits; don’t bleed Baltic ISR to Barents.Counter-FPV belt along E67/Rail Baltica (RF detection, mesh jammers, M-SHORAD, decoys).Rail/power rapid repair cadres staged at Białystok, Kaunas, Alytus; POL/ammo caches echeloned.Maritime domain awareness: random rummage/EMI sweeps on FoC hulls; USV/helo dips on cable lanes.C2 & comms: publish ILS/TACAN fallbacks, enforce INS/TERCOM nav profiles; pre-scripted public line: deterrence, not escalation.
RISK BOARD (NEXT 7–10 DAYS)
RU major move 15–17 SEP …… 55%Corridor restored ≤14 days …… 77% (36% ≤7d + 41% 8–14d)Red holds >14 days …… 13%Narva micro-salient (3–7 days) …… 31%Hybrid sabotage vs Baltic/Nordic subsea …… 30%French political paralysis materially delaying aid …… 55% (ops continuity mostly intact)US bandwidth drag from Mideast/Caribbean …… 35%
BOTTOM LINE
Window opens 15–17 SEP.Suwałki thrust remains the modal play; diversion at Narva likely.With current Blue posture (SEAD, ISR stack, MK logistics hub, PL–BY closure), odds still favor NATO rollback within ≤14 days if Moscow jumps.Expect maximum hybrid noise (EW/UAS/cyber/IO) from now until H-hour.