The new clip isn’t a single TEL: it shows a convoy with multiple Iskander-M launchers (≥2 TELs visible; likely a battery-sized move) on the E28/A-229 north of Kudryavtsevo (Kaliningrad oblast), heading toward pre-surveyed field sites.
A standard RU battery = ~4 TELs (9P78-1) + reload/transloaders (9T250) + command/commo and security. If it’s a full battery, salvo capacity = 8 ballistic rounds on first ripple (two per TEL), with rapid reload from the transloaders.
Range/coverage: Iskander-M ballistic rounds reach ~500 km+; from that corridor they cover most of PL/LT/LV, southern SE and NE Germany. (The system is dual-capable, but there’s no evidence here of nuclear warheads.)
Why now / so what:
Matches Zapad-2025 mobility drills and signaling during a high-tempo air/maritime week (Barents and Baltic).
Road-march on a main artery suggests redistribution from garrison to hides rather than static display; expect dispersal into forest revetments or farm tracks west/southwest of Gvardeysk–Chernyakhovsk.
Poland/Lithuania will read this as salvo-risk increase during ongoing UAV air-policing windows.
What to watch (next 24–48h)
1. Additional clips showing reload vehicles or 9S552 command posts → confirms full battery.
2. Any temporary road closures/NOTAMs inside Kaliningrad’s interior—often precede live-fire or night movements.
3. Polish/Lithuanian TFRs or SAM readiness notes mirroring the movement.
4. Satellite cues of fresh hides: disturbed tree lines/vehicle tracks between Chernyakhovsk–Krylovka–Zelenogradsk axes.
Bottom line: Multiple TELs on E28 = operational dispersal, not a lone launcher. Treat as battery-level readiness uplift in Kaliningrad synchronized with Zapad-2025 posture.