Flash update — Iskander (Kaliningrad)

A widely shared clip today claims to show a 9K720 Iskander-M TEL moving on a highway in Kaliningrad oblast near the Polish border. This is not yet independently verified (no official Polish/NATO confirmation or geolocation from reputable outlets at time of writing).

Context: Kaliningrad hosts the 152nd Guards Missile Brigade (Chernyakhovsk) equipped with Iskander-M; the enclave has been a permanent basing location for years. Movements on public roads during large drills (e.g., Zapad) are consistent with standard dispersal tactics.

Capability notes (for situational awareness): Iskander-M is a short-range ballistic missile system with an advertised range ~500 km and conventional or nuclear warhead options—placing most of Poland, Lithuania, and parts of eastern Germany within reach from Kaliningrad.

What to watch next (to judge seriousness):

1. Multiple TELs dispersing to field hides; presence of transloaders/command-post vehicles (brigade-level activity).

2. New NOTAMs / maritime exclusion zones in the Baltic that would suggest a live-fire window.

3. Parallel Russian air or naval alerts in the Baltic Sea region (e.g., added bomber sorties from Olenya/Barents).

4. Any official Polish/NATO statements confirming or geolocating the convoy.

Bottom line: if the video is genuine, it signals heightened readiness during the Zapad cycle rather than an imminent strike by itself. I’ll treat this as credible-but-unconfirmed until a trusted source geolocates it or authorities comment.