Signal value: If confirmed, this is the clearest “intent test” yet—a Russian/Iranian Shahed not just crossing Polish airspace but ending inside a military facility ~70 km from Warsaw. It strengthens Warsaw’s case that incursions are deliberate, not navigation drift.
Polish/NATO posture implications (near-term):
Tighter CAP/IAMD box over central Poland (Vistula line), plus low-altitude counter-UAS rings around military sites and airbases.
More shoot/kill authority for ground-based SHORAD against low-RCS tracks; expect short-notice alerts for WOT and air force units west of Łódź–Warsaw.
Article 4 consultations harden toward a named IAMD surge package (Patriot/SAMP-T rotations, counter-UAS detachments, extra AWACS/P-8/RC-135 cycles).
Narrative battlespace: Warsaw can now argue intent + target selection. Moscow/Minsk likely stick to “malfunction” claims while amplifying deterrence messaging from Zapad-2025.
Scenario probabilities (updated)
Scenario Before Now Why the change
A. Article-4 de-escalation → RU/BY pullback/pause 20% 15%
Base construction in BY + this impact on a Polish military site reduces plausibility of a near-term climb-down.
B. Managed standoff (no more incursions, grey-zone pressure continues) 50% 45%
Still the modal path, but the bar to “stop at one night” is higher after a symbolic hit.
C. Escalation into 12–16 Sep (Suwalki pressure window) 30% 40%
The combo of: Article 4, confirmed deep penetrations, Vilnius rail-gas fire (under probe), and Belarus base activity nudges risk upward during Zapad-2025.
What would shift us further toward C fast (tripwires)
1. Any new UAV/cruise track over PL/LT before/during 12–16 Sep.
2. Forensics tying the Nowe Miasto drone directly to Belarus launch + RU/BY info-ops celebrating it.
3. Visible BN-level movements toward Grodno/Lida/Brest; EW/jamming spikes on the PL/LT border; Kaliningrad naval/air surge.
4. NAC outcome goes beyond IAMD to force activation (VJTF/eNRF elements moving to NE Poland/Lithuania).
5. Additional infrastructure incidents in PL/LT (rail/energy/ports) with state-link indicators.
48–72h outlook
Expect continuous CAP/ISR arcs over eastern–central Poland, plus counter-UAS hunts near Warsaw-Łódź-Rzeszów corridors.
Grey-zone: elevated risk of cyber/SIGINT probing and physical sabotage attempts; local authorities will err toward precautionary closures.
If we get no further incursions by T+48h, Scenario B firms up; otherwise a single repeat pushes C into the lead.
Confidence: moderate—deception environment; we’re weighting intent and pattern over one-off claims.
This simulation, and the percentage shifts you share, are now my mental security blanket.