Drones Are Today’s Machine Guns — And Maybe Tomorrow’s Tanks

The lessons and warnings from history

Sep 26, 2025

When the machine gun appeared on the Western Front in 1914, generals thought it was just another rifle with a faster trigger. They didn’t grasp what massed automatic fire would do. The result was trench warfare — millions pinned down in mud, barbed wire, and stalemate.

When tanks rolled out two years later, they looked like lumbering tin monsters. Most broke down, but they carried a promise: a way to cross no-man’s land and restore movement. It took years of trial and error before the tank became decisive.

That rhythm — shock, stalemate, slow learning, eventual breakthrough — feels very familiar today as we watch drones swarm across Ukraine, the Middle East, and even civilian skies.

Cheap drones = the new machine guns

They’re everywhere, because they’re cheap and easy to build.
They turn open ground and exposed positions into death traps.
Like the machine gun, they favour defence, attrition, and wearing the enemy down.
The result is a battlefield where moving supplies, massing troops, or even lighting a cigarette can give you away.

Bigger, smarter drones = the tank dream

Large armed drones, swarms managed by AI, long-range strike systems — these are today’s “tanks in 1916.”
The promise is mobility and breakthrough: using machines to smash through defences and change the tempo of war.
But right now, they’re expensive, clunky, and doctrine hasn’t caught up. Just like the first tanks, most of their potential is still theoretical.

Fibre-optic drones: “unstoppable”?

Some people call fibre-optic or tethered drones “invulnerable.” It’s easy to see why: instead of radio signals, they’re controlled by a thin optical cable. That means jammers and spoofers don’t work. They deliver live, high-definition video and precise strike guidance.

But nothing is invulnerable. The cable itself is a weakness. Practical counters include:

Nets over roads or choke points to snag or break the cable.
Cages on vehicles that force warheads to detonate early.
Armoured roofs or shelters for fuel and ammo depots.
Cable cutting and entanglement by patrols or interceptor drones.
Active protection systems on high-value vehicles.
Dispersal and deception so a single strike doesn’t matter.

In other words: they’ve closed the electronic gap, but they’ve opened a physical one.

The history lesson

Technology isn’t magic. The tank only mattered when paired with infantry, artillery, and air support. Drones will need the same doctrinal evolution.
Mass trumps elegance. Machine guns mattered when there were thousands. Cheap drones matter for the same reason.
Counters always arrive. Artillery and new tactics reduced machine-gun dominance. Physical barriers, cages, and active protection are beginning to blunt the drone edge.

Final thought

World War I showed that new weapons don’t end wars; they reshape them. The machine gun reshaped how men fought, the tank reshaped how armies moved. Drones are doing both at once — pinning us down today, hinting at new breakthroughs tomorrow.

The lesson? Don’t expect a clean “solution.” Expect a long, grinding race of adaptation — mud and wire all over again, only this time in the sky.